Greenstein on odds
“Someone shows you a coin with a head and a tail on it. You watch them flip it ten times, and all ten times it comes up heads. What is the probability that it will come up tails on the 11th flip? A novice gambler will tell you, ‘Tails is more likely than heads, since things have to even out, and tails is due to come up.’ A math student will tell you, ‘We can’t predict the future from the past. The odds are still even.’ A professional gambler would say, ‘There must be something wrong with the coin, or the way it is being flipped. I wouldn’t bet with the guy flipping it, but I would bet someone else that heads will come up again.’”
Barry Greenstein, “Ace On The River: An Advanced Poker Guide”
